In This Week's Newsletter:

• Opportunity Spotlight of the Week: DOW DC3 TABO

• Four To Follow: Four Interesting Pursuits

• Capture Corner: The New EO on Contractor Investments

• Pricing Insights: Basis of Estimates (BOEs)

Opportunity Alert – DOW DC3 TABO

Contact Katie: [email protected]

Opportunity Alert – Department of the Air Force, Department of War (DoW) Cyber Crime Center (DC3) Technical, Analytical, and Business Operations (TABO).

 On January 2, 2026, the Contracting Office released an RFI and five (5) Draft PWS documents. The work includes the design, management, and sustainment of enterprise-level systems and architectures; the production of cyber intelligence and analytics; digital evidence management; quality assurance; training; and mission partner engagement. RFI responses are due no later than January 27, 2026, at 2:00 PM ET. The Final RFP for this $560M IDIQ is projected to be released around September 2026, with an award timeframe of April 2027. The competition type is currently unknown. Reach out to Hinz Consulting for any Capture, Graphics, Price-to-Win, or Proposal support, and continue to monitor SAM.gov for updates to the procurement timeline.

Four to Follow

1. U.S. Army Intelligence and Security Command (INSCOM), Integrated Geospatial Intelligence Enterprise Architecture (IGEA). On January 7, 2026, the Contracting Office released an RFI and a Draft PWS. Work includes providing professional IT support services for software, hardware, storage, and network connectivity across IGEA sites. Interested contractors are requested to submit responses and a capability statement no later than 8:00 AM ET on February 9, 2026. The contract value and competition type are currently unknown. Continue to monitor SAM.gov for any changes to the RFI and for information on the procurement timeline.

2. Department of the Navy, Command Control Communications Computer Intelligence Surveillance and Reconnaissance (C4ISR) Sustainment III. On January 7, 2026, the Contracting Office issued a Pre-Solicitation Notice and a Draft RFP. A virtual Pre-Solicitation Conference is scheduled for early January 2026 via Microsoft Teams. The date and time will be announced on SAM.gov. Questions are due no later than January 13, 2026, via the PIEE Solicitation Module. The Final RFP for this $250M Small Business Set-Aside is expected to be released at the end of January 2026 via SeaPort NxG, with a projected award in April 2026. Continue to monitor SAM.gov and your SeaPort portals for updates and any changes to the timeline.

3. Department of the Air Force, Implementation of Advanced Government Simulation Capabilities (IAGSC). The Air Force requires software development for various DoW customers and the integration of modeling and simulation capabilities into software and hardware environments. The contractor will conduct research and development of advanced software and hardware capabilities for integration into DoW systems. The Final RFP for this $750M Full and Open/Unrestricted IDIQ is expected in February 2026, with an award timeframe of September 2026. Continue to monitor SAM.gov for further updates on this effort.

4. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Enterprise Endpoint Support Services (EESS). On January 8, 2026, the Contracting Office released an RFI and Pre-Solicitation Schedule. NASA plans to hold three webinars on this effort on January 14, January 21, and January 28, 2026. Questions and comments on the RFI are due no later than January 21, 2026, with responses due by 3:00 PM PT on February 12, 2026. The Final RFP is expected to be released as a Small Business Set-Aside around July 2026, with awards anticipated for April 2027. The contract value is currently unknown. Continue to monitor SAM.gov for updates to the timeline.

The New EO on Contractor Investments

Contact Nick: [email protected]

In the evolving GovCon landscape of 2026, the January 7 Executive Order (EO) titled "Prioritizing the Warfighter in Defense Contracting" has sent ripples through the defense industrial base (DIB). Issued by President Trump, the EO targets underperforming defense contractors by restricting stock buybacks, dividends, and executive compensation, aiming to redirect capital toward production capacity, innovation, and on-time delivery. For capture managers, this shifts the game: past performance and investment strategies now carry greater weight in evaluations, making compliance a potential discriminator or disqualifier. In this Capture Corner, we'll dissect the EO's capture impacts, provide a framework for adapting strategies, and highlight ways to position your bids as "warfighter-first." With the Department of Defense/War (DoD/DoW) tasked with rapid implementation, staying ahead could mean the difference in PWin amid an $831B+ defense budget.

The EO Landscape: Key Provisions and GovCon Shifts

The EO addresses perceived misprioritization within the DIB, where some contractors prioritize investor returns over warfighter needs, resulting in delays to critical systems. Effective immediately, it prohibits major defense contractors identified as underperforming from engaging in stock buybacks or paying dividends until deficiencies are remedied, with a focus on metrics such as production speed, capacity investment, and contract prioritization. Within 60 days (by early March 2026), the Secretary of Defense/War must incorporate clauses into new contracts, renewals, and options prohibiting these activities during periods of underperformance, noncompliance, or insufficient investment. Executive incentives must also be tied to performance goals, such as on-time delivery and increased production.

Key shifts for GovCon:

• Enforcement Mechanisms: The Secretary can use Defense Production Act (DPA) remedies, FAR/DFARS enforcement, and contract tools to address deficiencies.

• Immediate Risks: "Underperforming" designations could trigger rapid reviews, with prohibitions taking effect upon notification—potentially disrupting financial planning.

• Broader Trends: Aligns with DOGE's efficiency push and NDAA 2026’s emphasis on supply chain resilience, creating opportunities for agile contractors while penalizing laggards.

• Uncertainties: Terms like "underperformance" and "insufficient investment" lack definitions, leaving room for Secretary discretion—expect FAR/DFARS updates soon.

This EO reframes capture: Agencies may scrutinize bidders' financial health and investment track records more closely, favoring those that demonstrate reinvestment over shareholder returns.

EO Implications for Capture Strategies

For capture teams, the EO elevates past performance and corporate priorities as key evaluation factors. RFPs may increasingly incorporate these clauses, making compliance a threshold issue. Impacts include:

• Pipeline Reassessment: High-risk pursuits (e.g., those tied to underperforming incumbents) could open doors for challengers—monitor SAM.gov for terminations or recompetes.

• Teaming Dynamics: Partner with firms that demonstrate strong EO alignment, such as those with a proven record of reinvesting in DIB capacity.

• Win Themes Evolution: Shift narratives from cost-savings to performance-driven investments, e.g., "Our track record of prioritizing production over payouts ensures on-time warfighter support."

• PWin Risks: Noncompliance could lead to bid exclusions or protests, especially in DoD-heavy sectors like weapons systems.

A real-world angle: Contractors previously criticized on social media for buybacks (e.g., via X posts from the President or the Secretary) may face heightened scrutiny, underscoring the need for proactive self-audits.

A Framework for EO-Resilient Capture

Adapt your process with this step-by-step approach, focusing on pre-RFP positioning and proposal strength:

1. EO Risk Assessment: Scan pipelines with tools like Deltek GovWin IQ to identify EO-impacted opportunities. Audit your firm's financials—have buybacks occurred during performance dips? Quantify reinvestments in capacity.

2. Strategy Alignment: Integrate EO metrics into win themes. For PTW, modeling scenarios show that internal investments reduce risk and enhance value.

3. Teaming and Partner Vetting: Require partners to disclose EO compliance plans. Use teaming agreements to mandate performance-linked incentives.

4. Proposal Integration: In past performance volumes, highlight reinvestment examples (e.g., "Diverted $X from dividends to expand production lines, achieving 95% on-time delivery"). Prepare for gate reviews to simulate EO scrutiny.

5. Post-Submission Monitoring: Track DoD guidance releases and adjust for debriefs, incorporating EO lessons into future captures.

Small businesses may benefit from set-aside expansions, but all should prepare for broader FAR changes by Q2 2026.

In summary, the new EO isn't just a regulatory instrument—it's a catalyst for capture. By prioritizing performance in your strategies, you'll align with the "warfighter-first" mandate and boost PWin in a performance-driven landscape. Act now; the 60-day clock is ticking.

Basis of Estimates (BOEs)

Contact Dr. Tom: [email protected]

A Basis of Estimate (BOE) is the foundational documentation that explains how a cost or schedule estimate was derived. It bridges the gap between a raw number and a credible plan.

Why BOEs are Critical?

Without a BOE, an estimate is just a guess. BOEs are important because they establish defensibility (fair and reasonable pricing). What they bring to the table includes ensuring a clear understanding of requirements, determining the “probable cost” for all contracts and establishing credibility and trust. They provide a clear audit trail, enable consistent risk assessment, and ensure that, if a project lead leaves, their successor understands the budget rationale. BOEs are not always needed especially when statements of work already recommend level of effort, staffing profiles, Other Direct Costs, Direct Materials, etc.

What Makes a BOE?

A standard BOE typically includes:

• Scope: The work being estimated.

• Methodology: The "how" (e.g., analogy, parametric modeling, or expert judgment).

• Assumptions: Conditions taken as accurate (e.g., "labor rates will remain flat").

• Exclusions: Items not included to avoid double-counting.

• Source Data: Historical data or quotes used for calculation.

Types of BOEs

1. Analogous (Comparative)

This type uses a direct comparison to a past project. It is most effective when the new work is very similar to an existing job.

• Logic: "Project B is 10% larger than Project A, so it should cost 10% more."

• Best for: Early-stage planning or repetitive work.

2. Parametric (Statistical)

This type uses mathematical models to relate project characteristics (parameters) to cost.

• Logic: "Historical data show that it costs $200 per square foot to build this type of facility; we have 5,000 square feet, so the estimate is $1,000,000."

• Best for: High-level accuracy when strong historical data exist (e.g., software lines of code, weight, or volume).

3. Engineering (Bottom-Up / Grassroots)

This is the most detailed approach. You break the project into its smallest components (Work Breakdown Structure or WBS) and estimate each piece individually.

• Logic: "Task A requires 40 hours from a Senior Engineer and 20 hours from a Technician."

• Best for: Finalizing budgets when the design and scope are fully defined.

4. Expert Judgment (Delphi Method)

This relies on specialists' experience when data are scarce. The "Delphi Method" is a structured approach in which multiple experts provide blind estimates and iterate until consensus is reached.

• Logic: "Based on 20 years of experience with this specific technology, I estimate this task will take 3 months."

• Best for: New technology or unique projects with no historical data.

5. Actual Costs (Extrapolation)

This method is used when a project is already underway. You use the costs incurred to date for the first phase to estimate the final total.

• Logic: "We have finished 20% of the project and spent $50,000, so the remaining 80% should cost roughly $200,000."

• Best for: Mid-project re-baselining or follow-on contracts for the same product.

The Most Successful BOEs

The most successful BOEs are those based on Parametric Estimating and Analogy with High Correlation.

1. Parametric Estimating: Widely considered the "gold standard" for accuracy in mature industries (such as aerospace or software). It uses statistical relationships between historical data and variables (e.g., cost per square foot or cost per line of code). Because it is data-driven rather than opinion-driven, it is highly successful in surviving rigorous audits.

2. Comparative/Analogy Estimating: This is most successful when a company has a robust "Lessons Learned" database. By comparing a new project to a 90%-identical past project and adjusting for known differences, the estimator reduces the "optimism bias" that often plagues new ventures.

Ultimately, the "best" BOE is transparent. Even a complex mathematical model fails if a stakeholder cannot follow the logic from the initial assumption to the final dollar amount.

It all goes back to the saying that “if you can defend it, include it,” but BOEs take that and make it official.

• January 26-28th: National Small Business Conference in Nashville, TN

• February 1-4th: National Conference of Regions in Washington DC

• March 16-17th: 2026 Air Force Contracting Summit in Reston, VA

About Hinz Consulting

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