In This Week's Newsletter:

• Opportunity Spotlight of the Week: DOA MAPS

• Four To Follow: Four Interesting Pursuits

• Capture Corner: Unsolicited White Papers

• Pricing Insights: The Dangers of AI for PTW

• Interesting Section: 2025 In Review: Fewer Bids, More Spending

Opportunity Alert – DOA MAPS

Contact Katie: [email protected]

Department of the Army, Marketplace for the Acquisition of Professional Services (MAPS).

On January 23, 2026, the Contracting Office released a modification that provides industry with an updated MAPS Draft RFP, additional supporting documents, and a link to the Q&A section. One notable change to the Draft RFP: the Army now intends to make 50 awards per Domain, reserving the right to award more or fewer. Each Domain will include at least 15 large businesses, 10 commercial sector vendors, and 25 small business reserves. The final RFP for this $50B IDIQ is expected around April 2026, with a proposed award timeframe of August 2027. Contact Hinz Consulting for Capture, Price-to-Win, Competitive Intelligence, and Proposal Support, and continue to monitor SAM.gov for any updates to the procurement timeline.

Four to Follow

1. Department of the Army, Intelligence and Security Command (INSCOM), Data Capabilities Division (DCD), Intelligence and Automation Operations (IAO). On January 21, 2026, the Contracting Office released and updated the Draft PWS and the Draft Solicitation. INSCOM requires Small Business industry partners to provide cross-domain solutions, digital content management, data management, operational support, access management, and IT support, including AI integration. Questions or feedback on the Draft Solicitation documents are due no later than January 30, 2026, by 9:00 AM ET. The estimated release date for the final RFP for this Small Business Set-Aside opportunity is March 2026, with a projected award date of May 2026. The contract value is currently unknown. Continue to monitor SAM.gov for updates to this opportunity.

2. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), U.S. Coast Guard (USCG), Engineering and Technical Support Services for Surface Vessel Design Sustainment and Human Systems Integration 2026 (HSI). USCG seeks a contractor to provide engineering, technical, and management support for the study, analysis, and development of solutions to engineering problems. This $100M Small-Business Set-Aside is estimated to be released on or around March 2026 via OASIS+SB, with a potential award date in September 2026. Continue to monitor SAM.gov and your eBUY portals for further information.

3. Department of the Army, Army Training Models. On January 23, 2026, the Contracting Office issued a Draft Solicitation seeking a contractor to provide subject matter experts with experience and continuity in planning, programming, budgeting, and executing Army support programs. This $47M Woman-Owned Small Business Set-Aside opportunity is expected to be released around April 2026 via GSA MAS, with a projected award date in September 2026. Continue to monitor SAM.gov and your eBUY portals for any updates to the procurement timeline.

4. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), Science and Technology (S&T) Directorate, Information Assurance Compliance Support Services. On January 23, 2026, the Contracting Office released an RFI and Draft SOW, along with feedback and questions, with submissions due no later than February 17, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. DHS is seeking an eligible contractor to provide program management support, compliance services, information systems security office (ISSO) services, information system security management services (ISSM), security operations center (SOC) services, and zero-trust architecture services. The contract value is not available at this time but is estimated to be between $25M and $100M, with a release date of March 2026 via GSA MAS and an award date of June 2026. Continue to monitor SAM.gov and your eBUY portal for any changes to the solicitation timeline.

Unsolicited White Papers

Contact Nick: [email protected]

In government contracting, effective capture management depends on early insight and influence—often before requirements are fully formed. When contractors lack an established customer relationship, shaping those early conversations can be challenging. One underutilized tool that can support capture and business development (BD) efforts, especially when an established relationship is missing, is the unsolicited white paper.

When done correctly, an unsolicited white paper can demonstrate a clear understanding of the mission, introduce innovative thinking, and open the door to customer engagement without creating procurement risk. When done poorly, it can damage credibility or raise concerns about fairness. The right approach is essential.

Why Unsolicited White Papers Matter: Unsolicited white papers are not proposals. They are strategic communication tools intended to inform, not sell. Their purpose is to:

• Demonstrate understanding of a mission challenge or capability gap

• Offer insight or alternative approaches the government may not have considered

• Establish credibility and thought leadership

• Enable early dialogue before formal acquisition activities

For capture managers, this is especially valuable when:

• The customer relationship is limited or new

• Requirements are emerging but not yet defined

• No RFI or draft solicitation has been released

A well-crafted white paper can help shape internal discussions and position your organization as an early adopter of a mission-relevant solution.

Submitting Through the Proper Channels: Before submitting an unsolicited white paper, contractors should review agency guidance on receiving unsolicited materials. Many agencies designate specific offices or email addresses for these submissions. If a customer Point of Contact (POC) exists, confirm that they are open to receiving the document and that doing so complies with internal policy.

White papers should not be sent informally or broadly, and contractors should avoid putting customers in uncomfortable situations. The objective is to provide value while respecting procurement boundaries.

What to Include in an Unsolicited White Paper: Effective white papers are concise, mission-focused, and written from the customer’s perspective. Typical elements include:

• Problem framing: A clear description of the mission challenge or operational gap

• Context: Why the issue matters now (policy, threat, or operational drivers)

• Conceptual approach: A high-level description of how the problem could be addressed

• Differentiators: What makes the approach innovative or effective

• Assumptions: Key constraints or conditions informing the analysis

White papers must be concise and focused. High-level examples from similar efforts may be included, but be careful not to overdo it. In most cases, unsolicited white papers should not exceed 5 pages.

What Should Not Be Included: Unsolicited white papers should not include:

• Rough Order of Magnitude (ROM) estimates

• Pricing, labor rates, or cost models

• Staffing plans or schedules

• Contractual language or implied commitments

• Full company capability statements

• Lengthy past performance citations or detailed use cases

• Erroneous, speculative, or overly technical material

Customers are busy. They do not have time to read a 15+ page unsolicited white paper or sift through generalized corporate messaging. The objective is to communicate a clear idea efficiently, not to demonstrate everything your company can do in a single document.

Including pricing or ROMs can introduce procurement risk and shift the conversation away from mission and capability before the government is ready. Without a clear understanding, you risk presenting an unrealistic price (too high or too low) and losing credibility.

Post-Submission: Follow up with a respectful, brief message to confirm receipt and gauge interest. If the customer engages, the focus should be on listening, validating assumptions, understanding priorities, and refining the problem space.

Insights from these discussions should inform the capture strategy, solution development, and future teaming decisions. If the agency later issues an RFI or requests a formal white paper or proposal, the contractor is better positioned if it has not crossed ethical or procedural boundaries.

Conclusion: When used thoughtfully, unsolicited white papers can be a low-risk, high-impact tool for capture and BD teams. They enable contractors to contribute meaningful insights, establish credibility, and initiate dialogue, even without an established customer relationship. The key is discipline: focus on mission needs, avoid discussing pricing, and respect the rules of engagement.

The Dangers of AI for PTW

Contact Gerrod: [email protected]

To determine whether Artificial Intelligence (AI) can reliably provide accurate Price-to-Win (PTW) targets, we conducted a simple case study using a Navy solicitation and associated GAO protest documentation. None of the four tools evaluated produced estimates accurate enough to serve as PTW targets. The takeaway is that AI is better suited to supporting an experienced analyst in developing and validating PTW estimates.

Can you use AI to conduct PTW?

You can upload the solicitation documents, list competitors of interest, and request details such as labor categories, direct labor rates, wrap rates, competitor fees, and projected competitor technical ratings. Your AI tool of choice will likely provide estimates, possibly with extensive justification. However, AI can generate details that appear credible but are inaccurate, so it’s essential to ask the next question.

Should you use AI to conduct PTW?

To test this, we used multiple AI tools to build a PTW from the solicitation, and then compared the outputs to the actual pricing in a GAO protest decision.

Case Study

The U.S. Navy released a solicitation in 2024 to provide educational support services and logistical support services for a foreign navy. Three competitors were invited to submit quotations, with an award to be made in early 2025. A protest was filed soon after, and a decision to deny it was released in mid-2025. A summary of the ratings and evaluated costs of the two competitors involved in the protest is shown in the table below.

The following prompt was entered into ChatGPT 5.2 Thinking, Gemini 3 Pro, Claude Sonnet 4.5, and Copilot. All tools, except Claude, provided the requested analysis and results. Claude declined to provide the analysis, stating that “detailed competitor pricing intelligence of this nature would typically be proprietary and confidential,” and instead offered guidance on conducting a PTW analysis.

Please provide a detailed Price-to-Win analysis for [program], using the attached full solicitation, for competitors [protester] of [location] and [awardee] of [location]. Provide a detailed Basis of Estimate (WBS, FTEs by Labor Category and Experience Level), direct labor rates, applicable company wrap rates, and fee rates. Also, consider each competitor’s expected ratings for non-cost evaluation criteria. Please ask any needed clarifying questions. Please do not reference or use data from the related GAO protest decision.

After addressing any clarifying questions, the three tools provided the estimated evaluated costs shown below, along with the requested supporting information. Based on the amount of detailed information provided, it may be easy to be convinced that the results are valid. However, compared with the actual evaluated costs, the results show significant issues. Compared with the actual costs being assessed, the AI estimates ranged from about 37 percent low to about 89 percent high. Two tools also reversed the cost ordering, finding the awardee to be the lower-cost option. Relying on these types of numbers would result in either a losing PTW target or an unattainable one.

This case study includes only one data point for a specific program type. Other program types may be better suited to AI. Additionally, better prompts or different tools may yield better results. However, when conducting a PTW analysis, you will not know what the “right” answer is, so it can be tempting to accept the AI-generated results given all the supporting information. For the time being, accurate PTW analysis still requires an experienced person who can use AI to support their analysis, including requirement extraction, WBS drafting, staffing logic checks, creating cost drivers, building sensitivity cases, and competitive intelligence research.

2025 In Review: Fewer Bids, More Spending

Initial Federal procurement data for 2025 shows spending rose, lots of extensions and bridge contracts, new opportunities dropping sharply, and DOGE shifted where funds were obligated.

• Federal obligations climbed to roughly $833.8 billion in FY 2025, up from $774 billion in FY 2024 (USAspending.gov).

• DOGE cancelled more than $15B in awards and these funds were reallocated to other programs. Courts set the stage for reinstatement of up to $7.5 billion.

• GovCon and industry tracking indicates that 2025 saw a large decline (25%+) in 2025 solicitation releases but we don’t have an authoritative data point to verify the extent.

• Extensions: Analysts note heavy use of bridge contracts, option exercises, and extensions.

• MAS awards stayed fairly steady at $52B.

• Spending in GWACs and other IDIQs was about $75B – sources claim is a 20%+ decline - but we can’t verify this.

• Top Vehicles in 2025 (initial data):

  • NASA SEWP V: $11.16B (15.4%)

  • Alliant 2: $10.26B (14.2%)

  • Seaport-NXG: $8.45B (11.7%)

  • OASIS Unrestricted: $4.32B (6.0%)

  • IAC MAC Pool 1: $3.47B (4.8%)

• Higher spend was concentrated among fewer vendors. One estimate has the top 15 companies accounting for 35% ($287.7B) of total federal contracts in FY25.

• February 1-4th: National Conference of Regions in Washington DC

• February 2-5th: Rocky Mountain Cyberspace Symposium in Colorado Springs

• February 10-12th: AFCEA WEST 2026 in San Diego, CA

• February 12th: MPRC Site Visit in Redstone Arsenal, AL

• March 12th: AFCEA NOVA Naval IT Day 2026 in Chantilly, VA

• March 18th: Navy Information Warfare Industry Day 2026 in Springfield, VA

• March 16-17th: 2026 Air Force Contracting Summit in Reston, VA

• March 24-26th: Cyber Workforce Summit in Washington DC

About Hinz Consulting

Hinz Consulting provides services across the full business development cycle:

• Proposals

• Capture

• Price To Win

• Competitive Intelligence

• Strategic Pricing

• Production

• AI Services

• Training

• BD Transformation 

• Process/Methodology 

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• Small Business