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Volume 96: DIA DORE3; Keeping Capture Productive During Shutdown; Upcoming Events

Author

Kit Conway
October 02, 2025

In This Week's Newsletter:

Keeping Capture Productive During Shutdown

Contact Nick: [email protected]

For capture managers in the federal contracting space, a federal shutdown isn't just headline news—it's a direct hit to your workflow. RFPs grind to a halt, communications with customers freeze, and ongoing pursuits face indefinite delays. However, here's the silver lining: shutdowns, while disruptive, offer a rare opportunity to refocus. Drawing from proven strategies in capture management, you can turn the government’s downtime into productive time. Whether you're reviewing pipelines or sharpening skills, the key is proactive planning. Below are some practical ways you can stay ahead during a government shutdown.

  • Double down on maintaining your CRM. With government activities paused,  use this time to audit your CRM tool. Update opportunity statuses, refine Probability of Win (PWin) estimates, and ensure all customer interactions are logged. A clean CRM enables data-driven decisions during uncertain periods!

  • Analyze past pursuits for lessons learned: What worked in previous bids? After identifying these successful elements, ensure they are deliberately incorporated into current captures to strengthen the strategy and increase the win probability.

  • Conduct internal opportunity reviews to understand your position across your pipeline and to determine how the government shutdown may impact solicitation release dates and your associated resource planning.

  • Shutdowns limit direct government engagement, so pivot to industry peers, subcontractors, and potential teaming partners. Attend virtual webinars or join forums on platforms like LinkedIn to discuss market trends without violating shutdown communication rules.

  • Use the lull for professional development: Dive into Salesforce's training modules on pipeline forecasting or APMP courses on capture planning.

  • Invest in research and preparation for the post-shutdown surge. Government shutdowns often result in a backlog of solicitations, so it's essential to scour public sources, such as SAM.gov, for forecasted opportunities that may accelerate once the shutdown is resolved.

  • Conduct "black hat" reviews internally—simulating competitor strategies—to refine your win themes and update your capture plans.

In essence, a government shutdown doesn't have to mean stagnation for capture managers. By treating it as an opportunity to refine processes, build knowledge, ensure all 'i's are dotted and 't's are crossed, and prepare strategically, you'll emerge ready to win.

Capture managers who utilize a government shutdown as a “strategic pause” approach will maintain momentum already gained and potentially provide their organization with a competitive edge when the floodgates reopen.

Remember, as Hinz Consulting puts it, “proactive planning is key" in uncertain times. Stay informed on the shutdown status through reliable sources and use this time wisely—your next significant capture might thank you for it.

Opportunity Alert – DIA DORE3

Contact Katie: [email protected]

Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), Data Science, Operations, Requirements, Exploitation, and Enhanced Engineering (DORE3).

On September 25, 2025, the Contracting Office released an RFI for contractors to provide advisory and assistance services (A&AS) for all eleven support areas for the unclassified SOW and a more detailed description of all eleven support areas in the SECRET/NOFORN SOW. Responses for this $1B Multiple Award IDIQ RFI are due no later than October 9, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Final RFP is anticipated for release via the NSA ARC with a SECRET/NOFORN classification. Contact Hinz Consulting for SECRET/NOFORM cleared personnel to support Capture, Price-to-Win support, and Proposal support.

Four to Follow

  1. Department of the Air Force, Commercial and Military Satellite Communications Operations Support (COSMOS). On September 29, 2025, the Contracting Office released a statement notifying the public that, in the event of a government shutdown and if it continues through October 9, 2025, the site visit to Fort Detrick, Maryland, scheduled for October 15, 2025, will be canceled or rescheduled. A Draft RFP is estimated to be released on or around October 2025, before the site visit, with a final solicitation to follow shortly thereafter. A projected award date for this $200M Full and Open/Unrestricted IDIQ is on or around April 2027. Continue to monitor SAM.gov for further updates to the schedule.

  2. Department of the Air Force, Wright Patterson Air Force Base (WPAFB) Mechanical Service System Repairs. On September 29, 2025, the Contracting Office released a Sources Sought notice for a capability package from contractors who provide diagnostics, maintenance, alterations, repairs, and replacements for HVAC systems, plumbing systems, and other related mechanical systems. Responses are due no later than October 14, 2025, at 2:00 PM ET. This IDIQ has a ceiling value of $900M and is estimated for release by March 2026 with a projected award timeframe of September 2026. Continue to monitor SAM.gov for more information.

  3. Department of Defense, Financial Transactions Helpdesk and Associated Programmatic Support (FTAPS). The DoD requires a Small Business (SB) contractor to provide support for modernizing and transforming the financial capabilities of Defense Agencies, aiming to achieve accurate and reliable financial information in support of financial accountability and effective decision-making for the warfighter. This $170M SB Set-Aside BPA is estimated for release via GSA MAS in December 2025, with a projected award in March 2026. Continue to monitor SAM.gov and your eBUY portals for further information.

  4. Department of the Navy, V Dept Combat Systems Engineering Strategic Planning. The Department of the Navy requires support for combat systems, systems engineering trades, and analyses for the definition and design of future Naval Surface Combat and Warfare Systems, as well as for current Naval Surface Combat and Warfare System Operations. The $250M opportunity is estimated to be released via SeaPort NxG in December 2025, with a projected award in August 2027. The competition type for this effort is currently unknown. Continue to watch your SeaPort NxG portal and SAM.gov for updates to the procurement timeline. 

Data Analysis in Price-To-Win

Contact Tom: [email protected]

1. Informed Decision-Making

  • PTW analysis helps determine the optimal bid price that balances competitiveness with profitability.

  • Data analysis provides insights into historical pricing, competitor behavior, and market trends, allowing teams to make evidence-based decisions rather than relying on gut instinct.

2. Competitive Intelligence

  • By analyzing competitors’ past bids, win rates, and pricing strategies, you can estimate their likely bid range.

  • This helps you position your offer strategically—either to undercut, differentiate, or justify a premium.

3. Risk Mitigation

  • Data analysis identifies pricing thresholds that could jeopardize profitability or disqualify a bid.

  • It helps assess cost realism and compliance, reducing the risk of a bid being rejected or resulting in a loss-making contract.

4. Customer Insight

  • Understanding the customer’s budget, priorities, and past procurement behavior through data helps tailor your pricing to what they’re likely to accept.

  • This increases the chances of aligning your bid with the customer’s expectations.

5. Scenario Modeling

  • Data enables simulation of multiple pricing scenarios—best case, worst case, and most likely.

  • This helps stakeholders visualize trade-offs and make strategic choices with confidence.

6. Transparency and Justification

  • A data-driven PTW analysis provides a defensible rationale for pricing decisions.

  • This is crucial for internal alignment across finance, sales, and executive leadership.

Organizations that embed data analysis into PTW often see higher win rates, better margins, and fewer surprises post-award. It transforms pricing from a guessing game into a strategic advantage.

Tool Time - Cognogent

Contact Tyler: [email protected]

Background and Inspiration

Cognogent was founded by Chris DeYoung, a technology leader with over 25 years of experience in high-performance computing and cloud solutions. One of the drivers for the company's existence came from a project that, despite its initial large scale and planning, suffered due to scope creep and evolving technical requirements. This, and many similar deals, inspired Chris to create a better, agent-driven approach for managing RFPs, scopes of work, and the evolution of solutions and projects.

Product Overview and Evolution

Cognogent’s differentiator is its end-to-end approach, which supports the first draft for solution, project plan, and draft pricing, saving time and effort. The product “shows your work”—delivering the solution logic, planning steps, and draft pricing calculations to the user. It employs a modular workflow that is agent-driven, with each AI agent focused on a specific task in the process (solution architecture, project planning, pricing), while maintaining its own memory, which improves context, accuracy, and transparency.

Key features include:

  • AI agent-driven workflow: Distinct, modular agents follow TOGAF1 and project management best practices, with pricing handled by a designated pricing team agent.

  • Vector database segregation: Product/service, project management, and pricing data are compartmentalized for a more accurate, context-bound output.

  • Bid/no-bid and gap analysis: Users upload product, partner, and competitor information, and the system provides actionable guidance on where to invest time and how to compete. 

Data Handling and AI Behavior

Each workflow stage has its own adjustable “temperature” to tune creativity vs. accuracy. For instance, bid/no-bid agents are allowed some creativity, but pricing agents are to use factual information. Context is trimmed step-by-step to minimize “hallucination” and ensure output is stable.

Competitive Landscape

Cognogent’s main competition includes the usual suspects in RFP-writing and content library tools (PSc, Vultron, etc.). While those products rely primarily on content reuse, Cognogent is also suited for integrators building custom solutions for each deal, not those selling standardized, repeatable offerings. Cognogent is well-suited for helping create solutions from scratch, identifying gaps between partners and competitors, and providing fast, comprehensive packaged solutions. 

Security and Compliance

The system, built from scratch for SOC 2 compliance, encrypts all data at rest and in transit and uses vector data partitioning to restrict agent access. Some gaps remain in agent-to-agent communication security, though Chris notes this is an industry-wide pain point. Cognogent deliberately avoids direct federal contracts to avoid prohibitive certification and compliance costs, focusing instead on tech-driven integrators working with federal or commercial end clients. 

User Adoption and Market Fit

Cognogent addresses an overlooked segment of our market – the pre-proposal phase. This positions them as a compelling solution, distinct from the typical options we have been evaluating in Tool-Time. Like all AI investments, Cognogent necessitates user adoption training, which we strongly advise – particularly since this tool saves your SMEs and technical staff time and effort, allowing them to concentrate on enhancing outcomes rather than generating them.  

Future Vision and Roadmap

The future vision and roadmap include several key enhancements and initiatives. Planned improvements in CRM/ERP integration will enable the ingestion of live product and pricing data. Additionally, there is an exploration of partnerships or mergers with configure/price/quote solutions. A long-term roadmap features a “digital twin” project simulation aimed at simulating project execution and supply chain scenarios for proactive risk pricing. Furthermore, a flexible agent framework is being developed, where dynamic “concierge” agents can orchestrate specialized SME agents, adapting to client workflows and project types. 

Industry Observations

Cognogent’s founder observes that the current RFP/BD tool landscape is fragmented, overly focused on content reuse or pipeline scraping (e.g., SAM.gov), and often does not prioritize user-centric or flexible workflows. The core value proposition: combining agentic workflow automation with deep transparency and adaptability—helping technical writers and sales teams move proposals forward even when technical SMEs are not available, and enabling organizations to “show their work,” not just deliver responses. 

Proposed Small Business (SB) Rule Changes

Proposed SBA NAICS Threshold Updates: Implications for IT, Consulting, and Data Hosting Firms

The Small Business Administration (SBA) has proposed revised revenue thresholds for select NAICS codes within IT services, professional consulting, and data hosting sectors. These updates aim to expand eligibility for small business programs and federal set-aside opportunities:

Proposed NAICS Code Adjustments:

• 541330 – Engineering Services: Increase from $25.5M to $29M

• 541611 – General Management Consulting: Increase from $21.5M to $27M

• 541612 – Human Resources Consulting: Increase from $21.5M to $27.5M

• 518210 – Data Processing, Hosting, and Web Services: Increase from $34M to $40.5M

Strategic Impact:

• Expanded Eligibility: Mid-tier firms previously excluded may now qualify as small businesses, unlocking access to SBA programs and set-aside contracts.

• Extended SB Status: Firms nearing graduation thresholds can retain their small business designation longer, preserving competitive advantages.

• Broader Vendor Pool for Agencies: Federal buyers gain access to a more diverse and capable set of small business providers across cloud, IT, and consulting domains.

These changes subtly shift the competitive landscape, offering new opportunities for growth, teaming, and strategic positioning across federal markets.

About Hinz Consulting

Hinz Consulting provides services across the full business development cycle:

  • Proposals

  • Capture

  • Price To Win

  • Competitive Intelligence

  • Strategic Pricing

  • Production

  • AI Services

  • Training

  • BD Transformation 

  • Process/Methodology 

  • Tools and Template

  • Small Business